Trust the Americans as war merchants of the last 100 years, trust the Europeans as the war-mongers for more than half a millennia. War, like everything else, to these people is a business.
The modern military machine is rolled out to defend power and economies, nothing more or less. They tend to sacrifice their children in thousands by sending them to be butchered on the war front to defend their economic interest and no collateral damage is too much if it serves that purpose.
We woke up with a barrage of between 15-20 missiles knocking targets at two locations of American bases inside Iraq as Iran fulfill its vow to retaliate the killing of its top General, Kasim Suleiman. But one begins to wonder why did the Americans chose to attack Suleimani, a key figure in Iranian military and intelligence circles, responsible for the co-ordination of Iran military might in the middle east?
The answer is simple and obvious…there is a need to escalate tension at this material time. A few months ago Iran downed a sophisticated and expensive military intelligence drone of the Americans but they chose to look sideways.
That was enough provocation to go to war with the Americans but they decided to let go. A tanker was also attacked with missiles at the Persian gulf and they still looked the other way. But now after the successful quelling of the attack on their Embassy in Bagdad, they hit a target they knew Iranians must retaliate, come what may.
Donald Trump was disgraced in December by the democrats as congress impeached him on charges of misdemeanor by inviting foreign government to interfere with American election. Even though the senate will block his being removed from office, the political goal scored by the democrats has huge impact on the coming presidential elections in November this year.
Trump is desperate to win re-election and the Republicans rallies adamantly behind him since the economy is good despite all the atrocities he is committing. The Democrats are wary of his increasing unilateralism which they see as negative on America’s position as the leading power in the long term. America has never been polarized as in Trump’s presidency and no side is willing to capitulate to the other.
Thus the only card remaining for Trump and the Republican party to win this election is if they go to war, war is the only card that will downplay the democrats impeachment credit as it will rally Trump’s base, some democrats and even independents as nationalistic sentiment is whipped.
In Americas recent history, no sitting President lost re-election when the country is at war, whether Republican or Democrat. Reagan did, so do Bush Junior, even Clinton and Obama had all been engaged in one war or the other.
The dice is casted and we have seen missiles claiming casualties for both the Americans and Iranians. The question now is what comes next?
If after the Iranian attacks, president Trump remain good to his words by attacking another high profile target among the 52 he mentioned (ironically that is the number of Americans held hostage in the Iranian revolution of 1979) or if Iranian attacks extend over directly to Isra’el, instead of using their proxy in Lebanon (Hezbollah), then I think the world has no option but to brace up for an all out war, which considering the dynamics of the conflicting interest of allies from both sides, could escalates to the much talked about WWIII.
Recent history of wars involving the both America and Iran, has an unpredictable outcome. We have seen the protracted war in Vietnam and Afghanistan, the Iran-Iraq war, and the 2nd Gulf War.
To borrow from Gowon’s remark after Nigeria’s civil war, there were hardly victors and vanquished in all of these wars. De-escalation of tension is what is needed right now or else, everyone, the world over will pay one way or the other (even though Nigeria will smile to the Bank as petroleum prices will keep surging upward as long as war lasted).
Ali Abubakar Sadiq